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YEI, 4 September 2012 (IRIN) – Five decades of war and upheaval in South Sudan has had an inevitable impact on education – almost three-quarters of adults in the world’s newest country are unable to read or write.
A recent report by the Overseas Development Institute (ODI) holds that less than 2 percent of the population has completed a primary school education.
“South Sudan is believed to have the worst literacy rate in the world, worse than Mali and Niger, which were the only ones close. [Adult literacy] currently sits at 27 percent, according to the latest statistics we have from 2009,” said Jessica Hjarrand, education specialist at the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO).
A 2005 peace deal paved the way for South Sudan to secede from the north in July 2011. The country has since struggled to build an education system for its young and to educate the millions of adults who missed out on school during the war.
“There’re not enough schools. There’re certainly not enough teachers,” said Hjarrand. “Most of the teachers in South Sudan are primary school leavers.”
As a result, the quality of instruction is poor, Hjarrand continued. “They don’t know how to manage a classroom. They don’t know how to manage people with different needs in the classroom, let alone the content area and the skills you’re supposed to be passing down through education.”
Michael Adier Kuol, headmaster of Lomuku Primary School in Yei, a town in Central Equatoria State, concurred. “In the school where I’m teaching now, there are around 16 teachers, and all of them are untrained.”
Complicating matters is the fact that South Sudan has decided to switch from offering instruction in Arabic, which is associated with the north, to teaching in English – a challenge for most teachers and students.
Many education experts believe that children should first become literate in their mother tongues. “But it’s very difficult to do when you’ve got something like, I think, 66 languages in South Sudan, to have to develop materials for each of those languages,” Hjarrand said.
Keeping up with demand
After southern Sudan signed the 2005 peace agreement, its education programme, supported by international donors, underwent one of the world’s fasted reconstruction programmes, a recent study reports.
Between 2006 and 2010, the number of primary school students more than doubled, from 700,000 to 1.6 million, the study notes.
But even after the influx of international donations, the country’s school system does not yet have the resources to keep up with demand.
In a courtyard in Yei, children sit on makeshift benches under a tree as they recite the alphabet. “They are taught under the mango tree, not in a classroom,” said the teacher, John Wandera. “That is one challenge – lack of enough space for learning”
George Clooney has been arrested for civil disobedience during a demonstration outside Sudan’s embassy in Washington DC.
The actor was taking part in a protest to warn of a humanitarian crisis in the volatile border area between Sudan and South Sudan.
His father, Nick, was also detained during the demonstration.
George Clooney is a keen Sudan activist and has made a number of trips to the region.
The Hollywood star, his father and fellow activists were led away in handcuffs after reportedly ignoring repeated police warnings to leave the embassy grounds.
George Clooney gives evidence to US Senate Foreign Relations Committee
Secret Service spokesman George Oglivie told the BBC: “George Clooney was arrested for crossing a police line at the Sudan embassy and he’ll be transported to the Metropolitan police department second district.”
Also arrested, said Mr Oglivie, were Martin Luther King III, son of the civil rights leader; Massachusetts Democratic Congressman Jim McGovern; Virginia Democratic Congressman Jim Moran; and National Association for the Advancement of Colored People President Ben Jealous.
Clooney’s arrest comes a day after he met President Barack Obama at the White House to discuss the Sudan situation.
The actor recently secretly travelled across the border to the Nuba Mountains in Sudan, where his group apparently witnessed a rocket attack.
He told the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee this week that what was happening in the region was “ominously similar” to the violence in Darfur.
The UN estimates that nearly 300,000 people have died and 2.7 million been displaced since the Darfur conflict broke out in 2003
Building a new nation amidst dire poverty and the scars of war
By Peter Martell, Juba
UN African Renewal
With a roaring cheer the people of South Sudan welcomed the newest nation in the world. A sea of people waved flags in a blur of colour as the south’s flag was hoisted high into the air on 9 July, marking the historic moment of formal independence from former civil war enemies in the north. Couples embraced and men cried as the new national anthem was sung for the first time ever.
“Today is the most important day for the people of South Sudan, the proclamation of whose birth and emergence as a member of the community of world nations you have just witnessed,” said President Salva Kiir, speaking in front of a giant crowd. “It is a day which will be forever engraved on our hearts and minds.… We have waited 56 years for this day. It is a dream that has come true.”
But the party is over, and now the hard work begins. “Let us celebrate today, but we must get to work right away,” President Kiir added. Achieving that dream will be no easy task. The new nation, an area about the size of Spain and Portugal combined, is left in ruins by decades of war.
“We have suffered so much over many long years of fighting,” said former child soldier turned student Mabior David. “Our baby nation has a long way to go,” he added. “But if we can be left in peace, I’m hopeful we will manage.”
Challenges
Sudan’s wars were the longest running conflict in Africa: two rounds of civil war spanning nearly 40 years, fought over ideology, religion, ethnicity, resources, land and oil. The last round, from 1983 to 2005, left some 2 million people dead and 4 million displaced from their homes.
Some in the south fought for separation. Others wanted Sudan to remain united, aiming to change a ruling regime in Khartoum that they said marginalized the majority. But the rebels also fought amongst themselves, in bitter internecine battles as bloody and as bitter as those fought against government forces.
A referendum on independence was set as part of a 2005 peace deal. When it came this January, almost 99 per cent of southerners who voted in the poll chose to split Africa’s largest country into two.
Southerners hope that the wars are now over. But formal independence will not solve overnight the massive problems left by such a long war.
“There are enormous expectations, but also enormous challenges ahead,” said Joe Feeney, who heads the UN Development Programme in South Sudan. “The people of South Sudan have suffered enormously. [The war] left a scar that is not only physical, in the infrastructure, but a scar has been left on the people.”
Six nations share a border with South Sudan, which has fewer than 100 kilometres of tarmac roads. “The vast majority of the country remains inaccessible during the rainy season,” added Mr. Feeney. “Jonglei state, just one of the 10 states in the south, is twice the size of my country, Ireland, and it has no paved roads.”
Statistics are shocking. South Sudan has lucrative oil reserves, but remains one of the most impoverished and least developed countries in the world. The UN’s World Food Programme said it helped feed about half the population last year, or some 4 million people.
The UN issues a list of “scary statistics” for visiting journalists: South Sudan has the lowest routine immunization coverage rate in the world. A 15-year-old girl has a higher chance of dying in childbirth than completing school. One out of seven women who become pregnant in the south will probably die from pregnancy-related causes.
Away from the celebrations in the capital, Juba, people had little time to party for independence. Much of their lives are taken up with day-to-day survival. “The acid test of success will be what changes the people out in the states will see in their lives as a result of independence,” Mr. Feeney said.
“All of Sudan, not just the south, will face major challenges,” warns Oxfam, the UK-based aid agency. “It will need long-term support from the international community if there is to be lasting peace and development.”
In Africa's newest — and one of its poorest — nations, one out of seven women dies from pregnancy-related causes. UN Photo / Fred Noy
Trappings of a state
Football and basketball teams have been made, passports ordered, a national anthem written and sung. “Having our own team play under the South Sudanese flag is something we have waited for,” says Rudolf Andrea, secretary of the South Sudan Football Association. “It is something I never thought would be possible, to show the world we are truly a new nation.”
But creating a viable nation will take more work than the symbolic trappings of state alone. The introduction of a new separate currency for the south is just one step, with other major hurdles ahead for the fledgling economy.
Key to the success of the south will be how the government negotiates with those who still threaten the new country, from outside and within. Ethnic rivalries between multiple groups are exasperated by bitter enmities dating from the war. In the past, the north exploited rivalries by backing splinter militias distrustful of the mainstream southern leadership.
Most of the south pulled together during the war in opposition to forces from the north. But now that separation has taken place, the south must unite and find new bonds and create a nation based on a shared identity.
“Is this nation going to be an inclusive nation?” asked Jok Madut Jok, a South Sudanese academic working in the culture ministry, who is also a history professor at Loyola Marymount University in the US state of California. “Or is it going to exercise the double standard that other countries have gone in for — that you become independent and then go ahead and do the exact things that you had rebelled against?”
Ensuring economic growth
Over 2 million southerners have returned home since the 2005 peace agreement was signed. But a new wave of tens of thousands of families are now travelling from the north to south. Over 300,000 people have returned home since last October, with many more expected still to come.
“We have returned home because we had to leave the north, because our jobs were terminated,” said former civil service official Giir Thiik, who spent four weeks on a slow barge to Juba. “There is nothing here for me to do, and my money is little. I’m glad to be back in the south, but truthfully, it is a shock.”
Building an economy to construct the new nation and provide jobs will put huge pressure on the government. Up to now, many services have been provided by aid agencies and international partners.
The government budget is based almost entirely on oil revenues, as much as 98 per cent in recent years. But there is also other economic potential. The south is believed to hold large mineral and metal deposits. It has vast areas of potential farmland, forestry and even hydroelectric power from the White Nile River.
But change must reach the people on the streets and in the villages. “We just want to be able to work and make a life for ourselves,” says Mary Okech, a widow with six children, who collects rubbish. “The problems are that there are not good jobs for us, and I don’t have the money to make a business on my own. I need help for that.”
Violence
Stabilizing peace also remains a real concern. The final steps towards Sudan’s divorce have been far from easy. Key deals remain to be struck on a variety of issues: sharing the oil proceeds, dividing the US$35 billion debt and demarcating the borders. Both countries have introduced new currencies, a process that is likely to add complications to their struggling and poorly managed economies.
Despite a peaceful referendum for the south, tensions remain high with the north, after months of violence in the border areas. In May, northern troops took over the contested Abyei region, forcing over 110,000 people to flee into the south. Both north and south claim the flashpoint region of grasslands and farms about the size of Lebanon as theirs. A referendum to determine where it will belong has been blocked, and remains a source of tension between the two sides.
A deal has been struck for northern troops to pull out and Ethiopian peacekeepers to replace them. But that deal still does not provide any means for a long-term peaceful solution.
Then in June violence broke out in the northern oil state of Southern Kordofan, between the northern military and former members of the ex-rebel Sudan People’s Liberation Army, now the official southern army. The north claims the fighters there are backed by the south, just as the south accuses the north of backing rebels in its territory to destabilize key oil areas along the still undefined north-south border.
Each side rejects the other’s accusations. But analysts say they fear there will be no swift solution to the conflict along the border.
Countdown to South Sudan’s independence
1820Egyptian army under Ottoman Turks invade Sudan, the south’s official start date of the “191-year struggle.”
1955Torit Mutiny against British colonial rule, followed by an intermittent bush war.
1 January 1956Independence of Sudan.
1963Southern separatist Anyanya rebels step up attacks.
1972Peace agreement signed between Khartoum and Anyanya rebels, giving the south limited autonomy; but the agreement swiftly crumbles.
1983Southern army officers rebel in Bor, forming the Sudan People’s Liberation Army and sparking the start of the second civil war.
9 January 2005Comprehensive Peace Agreement signed to end 21 years of war.
9 January 2011Week-long South Sudan independence referendum held.
7 February 2011Final results released: almost 99 per cent vote for separation.
9 July 2011Independence of South Sudan proclaimed.
‘What we want are bread, freedom and dignity’ – Egyptian demonstrator!
AS the ‘bigwigs’ of the PDP (Nigeria’s all conquering political party) gathered in Abuja in the second week of January 2011 (precisely Thursday, Jan. 13, 2011) to pick a presidential candidate for the party, two other important events were taking place simultaneously elsewhere on the continent. In Tunisia, the ‘people’s power’ was at play in which what seemed to have been a minor incident triggered the pent-up anger of the people leading to the ousting of a 23-year political dictatorship of president Ben Ali. At the same time, in Sudan, a referendum was going on for the secession or otherwise, of the South of the country. As we now know, the results of both events in Sudan and Tunisia proved positive – the peoples’ power held sway. South Sudan has overwhelmingly voted for independence, which would kick off in July.
Barely did the torch of freedom light up in Tunis, the domino effect was felt in Cairo. Cairo’s popular Tahrir Square became the counterpoint of peaceful political resistance against a 30-year dictatorship of Hosni Mubarak, boosted by the West and sustained by an edifice of political repression. Eighteen days into the resistance – exactly on Friday, February 11, 2011, Hosni Mubarak made a shameful exit from power, ending the prospects of a Mubarak political dynasty, which he was nurturing. Dictatorships by their internal logic are weak and cowardly – they require determined resistance to crack and disappear.
But what is the common denominator in the events in Tunisia, Egypt, Sudan and the presidential candidacy selection of the PDP in Nigeria? All these events are about the acquisition, management, and mismanagement of political power and its consequences. The PDP may not be a one-man dictatorship, but it is an organised political dictatorship, which has ruled Nigeria for 12 years, and its principals boasting openly that whether the Nigerian people like it or not, they will rule the country for 60 years uninterrupted. Unchecked political power in Tunisia, Egypt and Sudan, as it is in Nigeria, led to a culture of impunity in which the voice and vote of the people did not count; in which the leadership gloated and pretended that all was well; in which wisdom was absolutised by a few; and in which corruption flourished, unhindered.
The difference between Tunisia, Egypt, Sudan and Nigeria, is that for the former three countries, the process has run full cycle and the dare consequences have matured and unfolded; in Nigeria, the cycle is yet to be completed – the contradictions are fast building up, and the process of change is in incubation! As such, the recent events in Tunisia, Egypt and Sudan should be of interest to those who manage political power in Nigeria, especially the PDP, as an organised political force in the country. There is major paradox in the cases of Tunisia and Egypt as the site of a peoples’ revolution in the 21st century in Africa. Both countries, though ruled with iron fist have recorded remarkable economic progress, with qualitatively better social and human conditions, incomparable with that of Nigeria or most Sub-Saharan African countries. These countries are amongst the few countries in Africa that are likely to meet the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) of halving poverty in their countries by 2015 – Nigeria is far from it!
Tunisia’s economy grew at an average of about five per cent from the 1990s; inflation was squarely under control, and foreign direct investment flowed in. The World Bank in an assessment of the Tunisian economy in 2004, noted, “Tunisia has one of the fastest growing economies in North Africa and the Middle East since the mid-1980s. It has progressed from being a lower to a middle income country with a per capita income of $2,240”. Literacy rate in Tunisia is about 80% with the right of education codified in law in July 2002. The percentage of six-year old in school was 99.2% in 2008/2009. Female education and empowerment is a major priority in Tunisia. The percentage of female students in secondary school was 58% and that in higher education – 60% in 2010. About 30% of women occupy decision-making positions in the country. Under the country’s Code of Personal Status of 1956, polygamy was outlawed, and women given equal rights in marital relationships.
Health care services are free, qualitative, and accessible, while access to potable drinking water is about 94% and electricity about 99% for the population in Tunisia. Given these indicators, life expectancy is very high in the country – 76.2 years for women, and 74.6 years for men, compared to the African average of about 42 years. Tunisians live a much better life than Nigerians can ever imagine!
Egypt is not as lucky as Tunisia. Although its economy grew at an average of about 6% from 2005-2010, inflation rate was about 17% in 2009, while youth unemployment continue to soar. About 40% of Egyptians live on less than $2 per day. In spite of this, life is much better in Egypt than it is in Nigeria. Over 70% of Nigeria’s population lives in groaning poverty. Even as the demonstrations were going on in Tahrir Square, electricity was regular in the neighbourhoods. Was it to be in Nigeria, all the protesters may have been shot by the police under the cover of darkness! But the better living conditions in Tunisia and Egypt could not hold back the process of change. Although bread may be available, freedom and dignity were absent! The people fought to reclaim their freedom and dignity!
In Sudan, the people of Southern Sudan have existed as second class citizens in their country right from independence in 1956, and successive governments in Khartoum have cemented that. Sudan like Nigeria has had a chequered political history with coups, military rule and counter-coups. Two major regimes, both of a military nature, have in succession dominated power in Sudan. The first is that of Colonel Gafaar Mohamed el-Nimeri who ruled from 1969-1985, and the second that of Omar Hassan Ahmed al-Bashir, 1989-present.
These two leaders rather than reform Sudan, to erase the colonial legacy of divide and rule between the North and the South, exacerbated it. Religion, ethnicity and race were invoked as instruments of political legitimation, which furthered the marginalization of the South in national life. The consequence was a protracted civil war, which eventually ended with the signing of a Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) on 9th January 2005 after three years of painful negotiations. A major part of the agreement is that after five years a referendum would be held for self-determination by the South. The assumption was that in five years the wounds would have been healed, mistakes corrected, and a united Sudan emerged.
This never happened! South Sudan has now completed its final rites of independence.
What are the lessons of Tunisia, Egypt and Sudan for Nigerian leaders? When the leaders deny their people bread, freedom and dignity, resistance and revolution are inevitable. We rarely need the prophesy of an Atiku or the lamentations of a Ben Nwabueze to know that change is inevitable in Nigeria. But what we do not know is when, how, and in what shape and form the change would be?
Our leaders have planted the seeds of change in the society. Graduate unemployment in Nigeria is over 50%, poverty rate – of less than $2 per day is over 70%, basic infrastructures have completely collapsed – electricity, water, good roads, etc, there is general insecurity, and an oil exporting country imports refined petroleum for its local use so that oil buccaneers can live off the sweet of the people. Nigeria runs perhaps the most expensive civilian government in the world – the National Assembly consumes significant percentage of the national budget; some past leaders, who were virtually broke before luck smiled on them with state power now own private jets that they travel in; and some others who have little or no knowledge about the oil industry now own oil wells, which they sell for raw cash. The picture is that of a jungle.
Power, as shown in Tunisia, Egypt and Sudan ultimately belongs to the people. It may take long but the people will invariably rescue it from their tormentors. If Ben Ali and Hosni Mubarak had premonition about how things would turn out, they would probably have done things differently. Nigerian leaders have the opportunity to change course, initiate progressive reforms and restore hope for their people. If this is not done, there are signposts already of what the future holds for them!
This article first appeared in The Guardian (Lagos) 21 February, 2011.
In the last couple of months, there hav been pockets of crises here and there on the African continent. From Ivory Coast to Sudan, and from Tunisia to Egypt, it has been tales of cacophony and woes. This seems worrisome in a continent blessed with abundant human and material resources. There is a tendency to regard our dear continent as cursed, given the enormity of turmoil in the land. But when viewed against the backdrop that there is no nation or continent which has not been through this phase of development in its historical evolution, we may be consoled that all is not lost.
I have read all sorts of comments on the happenings in Africa in recent times – from the cosmetic to the logical. But the funniest has been the one saying that what is happening is a sign of the end time. I consider this laughable as I see this more or less as a phase in our development. As much as one would have expected that by now Africa should have outgrown this stage, we must know that it is not what is going on that matters but how we handle it. We therefore need to tread on the side of caution, as violence cannot end violence. It will only escalate it.
In the face of the on-going adversity, one thing is obviously clear: the current generation of African leaders is bereft of ideas. The onus is now on us (the younger generation) to begin to look inwards. We must begin to light up our corners with bright ideas. After all, ideas, they say, rule the world. We must be guided by Stedman Graham’s advice that “people who let events and circumstances dictate their lives are living reactively. That means that they don’t act on life, they only react to it.” The only price we have to pay to prove to the world that Africa is blessed and not cursed is to be conscious of the fact that “leaders are not born, they are made. They are made just like anything else…through hard work” (Vince Lombardi)
Southern Sudanese vote for independence this week
Nyarko Benso, TalkAfrique
Hollywood actor George Clooney is in Sudan to show his support for and keep an eye on the independence referendum that is underway in Southern Sudan. The people of Southern Sudan are going to the ballot this week to decide on secession or otherwise remain part of the United Sudan.
Speaking about his mission in Sudan over the weekend, Mr. Clooney said
“I am excited to see a country vote for its freedom for the first time. I’ve never been around to see one of those before and I’m very honored that I’m able to be a witness of this kind of independence,”
The Hollywood Star has been a fervent activist for human rights in Sudan. He is currently collaborating with Google and other agencies of the United Nations to monitor the situation in Sudan and prevent possible pandemonium that may result from the vote this week. Their endeavor is referred the ‘Genocide Paparazzi’ in some quarters while Mr. Clooney is officially dubbed the ‘Messenger of Peace’ for the United Nations.
Some 3.9 million Southern Sudanese have registered to vote in the referendum, which is part of the 2005 peace agreement that ended a 22-year north-south civil war in which around two million people were killed.
Voting commenced over the weekend. Isolated violence has been reported in some places but overall, the process seems to be moving as envisioned.
Update:There has been clashes in Sudan’s disputed oil-rich Abyei region. At least 30 people have been killed including police, reports say
On January 9, the people of south Sudan will vote in a referendum to decide whether they will remain part of a united Sudan or form a new independent state
Thabo Mbeki
The entire continent is watching to see if diverse communities can live in peaceful mutual respect.
IT HAS been said, correctly, that Sudan is a microcosm of Africa. For this reason, the entire continent will follow events in Sudan over the next few months with the greatest interest.
On January 9, the people of south Sudan will vote in a referendum to decide whether they will remain part of a united Sudan or form a new independent state. If they choose the latter option, the new state will come into being in July.
During the same period, even as Sudan is addressing the issue of its north-south relations, it will also have to arrive at a comprehensive agreement to end the conflict in Darfur.
During its nearly 55 years of independence, Sudan has experienced a succession of violent conflicts, in the south, the west (Darfur) and the east. It is commonly accepted that what lay at the root of these conflicts was the failure of independent Sudan – one of Africa’s most racially, ethnically, religiously and culturally diverse countries – to construct a polity informed by the principle and practice of unity in diversity.
This challenge faces almost all African countries as they seek to construct stable and peaceful societies. Nearly all civil wars and other violent conflicts in post-colonial Africa have occurred because of the failure to manage properly the diversity that characterises these countries.
These conflicts have taught Africa that, in order to contain the centrifugal pressures that encourage fragmentation within our relatively new states, a conscious effort must be made to nurture and entrench national unity, which must include democratic practices. Conflict has also communicated the unequivocal message that unity cannot be secured and maintained by force alone.
Rather, it is only by respecting our diversity – ensuring that each social group enjoys a shared sense of belonging rather than feeling marginalised and excluded – that the state’s unity and peace can be guaranteed.
Sudan has learnt these lessons through harsh practical experience, including war.
As long ago as 1975, Gafaar al-Nimeiry, Sudan’s military head of state, stated with great prescience what Sudan and Africa needed to do to achieve peace and stability. “Unity based on diversity has become the essence and the raison d’etre of the political and national entity of many an emerging African country today. We take pride in that the Sudan of the Revolution has become the exemplary essence of this new hope. The Sudan is the biggest country in Africa. It lies in its heart and at its crossroads. Its extensive territory borders [nine] African countries. Common frontiers mean common ethnic origins, common cultures and shared ways of life and environmental conditions. Trouble in the Sudan would, by necessity, spill over its frontiers, and vice versa. A turbulent and unstable Sudan would not therefore be a catalyst of peace and stability in Africa, and vice versa.”
Unfortunately, failure to implement policies based on genuine respect for this perspective plunged Sudan into its second costly north-south war, fuelled the violent conflicts in western and eastern Sudan, and created the possibility of the south’s secession. Given this history, it is clear that the governments of Sudan and south Sudan, as well as the overwhelming majority of the Sudanese people, have had enough of war and passionately desire peace.
The processes in which the Sudanese parties are currently engaged – the preparations for the south Sudan referendum, negotiations on post-referendum arrangements, and the search for a negotiated settlement in Darfur – are all informed by this desire for peace. For this reason, Africa is following Sudan’s evolution with intense interest – and is eager to see this country “at the heart and crossroads of Africa” give substance to al-Nimeiry’s vision.
But, regardless of the outcome of the south Sudan referendum, the impending developments in Sudan will result in important changes to the structure of the Sudanese state. In this context, the Sudanese parties – north and south – have accepted the important principle of establishing “two viable states” if the south secedes.
As happens during periods of major and rapid change, the country will experience social tension, uncertainty and unease. Africa is keen that the Sudanese leadership co-operate effectively to manage this delicate situation, in the interest of the continent as a whole. This requires that Sudan’s various leadership collectives have sufficient strength and cohesion to bring their constituencies into the settlement, and therefore that no one, from near or afar, does anything to weaken any of these collectives.
It is in Africa’s interest to see Sudan’s people living together in peace and co-operating with one another for their mutual benefit – fully respecting one another’s diverse but not mutually exclusive interests, whether they live in one country or two. A Sudan that truly embodied “the exemplary essence” of respect for diversity of which al-Nimeiry spoke would serve as a catalyst for peace and stability on our continent.
It is to be hoped that the sustained and enormous international focus on Sudan has as its objective providing the necessary support to the Sudanese people to help them achieve this goal, including building two viable states, as may be necessary.
Thabo Mbeki, a former president of South Africa, is chairman of the African Union High Level Implementation Panel for Sudan.
Finally, the January referendum wheels seem to be turning irreversibly in Southern Sudan. There was a lot of excitement even with the registration that ended last Tuesday, by which time three million had registered.
Now it looks like the January 9, 2011, when the region is highly likely to vote to secede, will be on schedule. If not, the delay will only be by a few weeks.
So far a lot of attention has been focused on whether Khartoum will sabotage the referendum, and plunge the country back into war.
However, there is another organisation that is quite uneasy with the prospect of South Sudan independence — the African Union.
At one point the AU was categorical that it did not think secession was the best option for South Sudan. Lately, as the inevitable draws close, it has softened its position.
However, it remains mealy-mouthed.
The AU is concerned about South Sudan, because African leaders fear what effect secession will have on their own mostly poorly managed and poor nations.
Some African countries are too big for their leaders to run effectively.
For that reason, one can argue that it makes sense for Sudan, Africa’s largest country, to be split in two, even if it hadn’t endured decades of a bitter civil war.
If South Sudan’s secession creates a domino effect, it is not difficult to see which ones will fall first.
Most immediately, next door, it will help complete Somaliland’s consolidation into an independent or, at least, autonomous state.
There are, indeed, Somali academics who claim that the UK, for one, wants Somaliland, which was once a British protectorate, to break away.
In the long run, depending on how the February 2011 elections and next five years turn out, northern Uganda — where there have already been secessionist rumblings — could look to form a loose federation with Southern Sudan and the Lendu of the DR Congo in a bigger “Lendu Republic” as hardline Sudanic/Luo chauvinists in East Africa sometimes refer to that political project.
Sooner than that, DR Congo could follow Somaliland.
The DRC is likely to split into four; the western part will be one block, then the eastern “Kiswahili region” will break up into three.
One, further south, will be a Rwanda sphere of influence. The middle portion could be a Uganda-allied state. And the northern bit would walk off to be part of the Lendu Republic.
The one that would really shake Africa would be Nigeria. Indeed, the eccentric Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi (the man with the “voluptuous blonde” Ukrainian nurse), has suggested that Nigeria be split into north and south, as one way of stopping the periodical orgies of Christian-Muslim slaughter.
The Nigerian government was outraged, but that is a popular view in the oil-rich south, which thinks the north are a bunch of freeloading gun-toting Muslim extremists.
Back in the East African Community, the Zanzibar Isles, which have never been quite happy in their marriage to mainland Tanzania, could swim off to relish the pleasures of their spices without the overlordship of condescending Dar es Salaam.
*Charles Onyango-Obbo is Nation Media Group’s executive editor for Africa & Digital Media. E-mail: cobbo@ke.nationmedia.com
