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No African Country is Immune to The Call for Change Sweeping Across The Continent, Not Even South Africa

Municipal workers on strike at Cape Town, South Africa

Africans and people of the Middle East have spoken; and in their loud and clear voices, they have unambiguously made it clear to their governments that cronyism, nepotism, corruption, and any abuse of state resources and public power for the benefit of the few will no longer be tolerated. At present, demands for political reforms are mounting in Libya despite deadly threats from the current regime, and the people of Yemen, Bahrain, and Jordan are continuing with their struggle for freedom.  As expected Zimbabwe’s security apparatus is on high alert and no one doubts its readiness to use whatever means available to crush the people’s demands for true democracy and to keep President Mugabe in power. Today, the first of March is Everybody Hates Bob Day (#EverybodyHatesBob on Twitter) and anti –Mugabe protests have been planned for Harare, Bulawayo and there will also be a demonstration outside South Africa’s National Parliament in Capetown. This demonstration is in response to the arrests of 45 Zimbabweans for watching uprisings footage. The arrested pro-democracy activists have since been charged with treason.  Without doubt, only a fearful, paranoid and desperate regimes will respond with such stupidity to a normal act of watching uprisings footage. Unfortunately, this incident and many other instances of violent abuse, intimidation and repression against ordinary Zimbabweans happen under the watch of SADC. Perhaps it is time for SADC to realise that whatever it is trying to do  in Zimbabwe is not working and the grabbing of foreign companies as Mugabe launches his “anti sanctions campaign” tomorrow as part of his election campaign clearly shows that he has little regard whatsoever for the regional bloc.

Tunisia’s wave of change currently spreading like wildfire throughout North Africa and the Middle East harshly reminds the entire African leadership that people will no longer accept anything less from them. The revolution is further proof that the people have had enough of bad governance. Going forward, it can not be business as usual and leaders need to vigorously assess the impact the revolts will have in their own countries. Long-serving leaders many of whom have poor service delivery records and dictatorship tendencies need to go back to the boardroom.  They need to realise that there is nothing they can do about the present situation. People want freedom and they want it now.  Victor Hugo, French poet, novelist, playwright once said “there is nothing more powerful than an idea whose time has come”. This quote captures the mood of Africans at this point in time.  

Democratic South Africa was recently forced to engage with the implications of Tunisia’s revolt. In response to a prediction by Moeletsi Mbeki, political analyst and brother of former President Thabo Mbeki that South Africa’s Tunisia Day will be in 2020, the President’s response was “I can tell you there will never be a Tunisia in South Africa. We have a constitutional democracy here. No-one is being repressed; everyone has the right to say what he wants and to vote.” “It is impossible. I use the word again: It is impossible.”

One thing that the protests have taught us is that anything is possible. South Africans through violent service delivery protests have strongly made it clear to the government and the ruling party that constitutional democracy has to deliver on socio economic rights  and it has to make it possible for all to live a dignified life with access to basic services like water, electricity, sanitation, health care, and so on. There is widespread acknowledgement that substantial progress has been made in the delivery of basic services to South Africans, however, much more needs to be done. The youth who are behind many of the current protests in North Africa are, for example, the main victims of the unemployment crisis in South Africa. Statistics show that about 50%  of young people below the age of 25 are unemployed and have no chance at all of finding a job. Many hope the youth wage subsidy starting in 1 April 2012 will help soften the crisis, but it remains to be seen what its impacts will be. At the launch of the ANC‘s Election Manifesto for the 2011 local government elections to be held before May, the President of the ANC Youth League Mr Julius Malema correctly echoed the sentiments of many including the youth when he said that “this democracy is not a democracy of families; this is a democracy of the people of the South Africa”… “When families are exploiting the resources of this country and are enriching themselves in the name of freedom, when those in political office abuse their power to benefit friends, the youth must rise in defence of the ANC.” This statement comes at a time when there is a strong perception that members of the President’s family especially his 28 year old son Duduzane and the President’s close friends the Gupta family are getting state contracts worth billions of money. Surely it is stories like these that have brought out the wrath of the Tunisian and Egyptian people.

Whether the perception is real or not, what matters is that it exists and it was a contributing factor in the uprisings in North of Africa. South Africa despite its strong democratic institutions and a somewhat better service delivery record is not immune at all to what is happening around it.

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Sudan vote a test for all Africa

On January 9, the people of south Sudan will vote in a referendum to decide whether they will remain part of a united Sudan or form a new independent state
On January 9, the people of south Sudan will vote in a referendum to decide whether they will remain part of a united Sudan or form a new independent state
Thabo Mbeki

The entire continent is watching to see if diverse communities can live in peaceful mutual respect.

IT HAS been said, correctly, that Sudan is a microcosm of Africa. For this reason, the entire continent will follow events in Sudan over the next few months with the greatest interest.

On January 9, the people of south Sudan will vote in a referendum to decide whether they will remain part of a united Sudan or form a new independent state. If they choose the latter option, the new state will come into being in July.

During the same period, even as Sudan is addressing the issue of its north-south relations, it will also have to arrive at a comprehensive agreement to end the conflict in Darfur.

During its nearly 55 years of independence, Sudan has experienced a succession of violent conflicts, in the south, the west (Darfur) and the east. It is commonly accepted that what lay at the root of these conflicts was the failure of independent Sudan – one of Africa’s most racially, ethnically, religiously and culturally diverse countries – to construct a polity informed by the principle and practice of unity in diversity.

This challenge faces almost all African countries as they seek to construct stable and peaceful societies. Nearly all civil wars and other violent conflicts in post-colonial Africa have occurred because of the failure to manage properly the diversity that characterises these countries.

These conflicts have taught Africa that, in order to contain the centrifugal pressures that encourage fragmentation within our relatively new states, a conscious effort must be made to nurture and entrench national unity, which must include democratic practices. Conflict has also communicated the unequivocal message that unity cannot be secured and maintained by force alone.

Rather, it is only by respecting our diversity – ensuring that each social group enjoys a shared sense of belonging rather than feeling marginalised and excluded – that the state’s unity and peace can be guaranteed.

Sudan has learnt these lessons through harsh practical experience, including war.

As long ago as 1975, Gafaar al-Nimeiry, Sudan’s military head of state, stated with great prescience what Sudan and Africa needed to do to achieve peace and stability. “Unity based on diversity has become the essence and the raison d’etre of the political and national entity of many an emerging African country today. We take pride in that the Sudan of the Revolution has become the exemplary essence of this new hope. The Sudan is the biggest country in Africa. It lies in its heart and at its crossroads. Its extensive territory borders [nine] African countries. Common frontiers mean common ethnic origins, common cultures and shared ways of life and environmental conditions. Trouble in the Sudan would, by necessity, spill over its frontiers, and vice versa. A turbulent and unstable Sudan would not therefore be a catalyst of peace and stability in Africa, and vice versa.”

Unfortunately, failure to implement policies based on genuine respect for this perspective plunged Sudan into its second costly north-south war, fuelled the violent conflicts in western and eastern Sudan, and created the possibility of the south’s secession. Given this history, it is clear that the governments of Sudan and south Sudan, as well as the overwhelming majority of the Sudanese people, have had enough of war and passionately desire peace.

The processes in which the Sudanese parties are currently engaged – the preparations for the south Sudan referendum, negotiations on post-referendum arrangements, and the search for a negotiated settlement in Darfur – are all informed by this desire for peace. For this reason, Africa is following Sudan’s evolution with intense interest – and is eager to see this country “at the heart and crossroads of Africa” give substance to al-Nimeiry’s vision.

But, regardless of the outcome of the south Sudan referendum, the impending developments in Sudan will result in important changes to the structure of the Sudanese state. In this context, the Sudanese parties – north and south – have accepted the important principle of establishing “two viable states” if the south secedes.

As happens during periods of major and rapid change, the country will experience social tension, uncertainty and unease. Africa is keen that the Sudanese leadership co-operate effectively to manage this delicate situation, in the interest of the continent as a whole. This requires that Sudan’s various leadership collectives have sufficient strength and cohesion to bring their constituencies into the settlement, and therefore that no one, from near or afar, does anything to weaken any of these collectives.

It is in Africa’s interest to see Sudan’s people living together in peace and co-operating with one another for their mutual benefit – fully respecting one another’s diverse but not mutually exclusive interests, whether they live in one country or two. A Sudan that truly embodied “the exemplary essence” of respect for diversity of which al-Nimeiry spoke would serve as a catalyst for peace and stability on our continent.

It is to be hoped that the sustained and enormous international focus on Sudan has as its objective providing the necessary support to the Sudanese people to help them achieve this goal, including building two viable states, as may be necessary.

Thabo Mbeki, a former president of South Africa, is chairman of the African Union High Level Implementation Panel for Sudan.

Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2010.

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