Take Risk on The Cheap: A Lesson on Decision Making

In the NLF (National Football League) draft, a player may be labeled as a risky pick for a particular team, while another player is rated as ‘High Value’ pick for another team. As I wrote in my earlier post, great General Managers don’t make decisions based solely on analysts’ ratings.

Analyst and pundits may call a player ‘too risky’ for a team based on circumstances at theme. Again, note that a player may be too risky for a 1^st round pick, but if that same player is available for a 6^th round, he may be a bargain. Sometimes, the breakthrough to success comes by simply grabbing the opportunity to take something which has become dirt cheap because of perceived risk.

Ahmed Bradshaw was a running back from Marshall University. Heading into the 2007 NFL draft, he was considered top talent and top round pick. However he had problems with the law; he was charged with underage drinking and had some brushed with law enforcement. Analyst started calling him ‘Too Risky’ and so his prospects in the draft sank. He was considered too risky to be an early round pick. He fell all the way to 7^th round and that was when the New York Giants grabbed him.

Now move forward with me five years. The man considered too risky to be drafted has helped the New York Giants win 2 Super Bowls Championships. In fact he scored the winning touch down in 2011 Super Bowl when the Giants beat the New England Patriots. And they got him very on the cheap, a 7^th round pick, because he was considered ‘too risky’.

Warren Buffet, the famous American investor once said “Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.” That’s the lesson in the essay. Remember at 7^th round, Ahmed Bradshaw had the same talent that he would have if he were considered a 2^nd or 3^rd round pick. He had just become filthy cheap. When something becomes ‘too cheap’ because it’s labeled as ‘too risky’ and so everybody is running away from it, it may be time to go for it!

Always remember, the decisions you make should be your decisions, not those of any expert or analyst.
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